SkillsSkill 1 of 5
Forecast from evidence, not coverage
Weight pipeline by each stage’s real close rate, call the gap early, and never treat a coverage ratio as a forecast.
Worked example
Is 3.2× pipeline coverage enough to call the quarter?
A coverage ratio counts every pipeline dollar the same. Weight the pipeline by how it has actually closed before you call the number.
The question
Ledgerwick, a fictional accounts-payable automation platform for mid-market finance teams, has six weeks left in the quarter and $2.0M of new ARR still to close. The CRO calls the quarter covered.
| Pipeline ($k) | Past in-quarter close rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Discovery | 2800 | 8% |
| Evaluation | 1900 | 22% |
| Proposal | 1100 | 45% |
| Negotiation | 600 | 70% |
| Total | 6400 | — |
Invented data. Close rate is the share of pipeline dollars at that stage, six weeks before quarter end, that closed in the same quarter, averaged over the last four quarters. Still to close: $2,000k.
- CRO$6.4M against $2.0M is 3.2× coverage. Three is the rule. We’re covered.
- AEMost of my discovery deals came from the AI SDR last month. They’ll move fast.
- RevOps leadTwo of the negotiation deals already slipped from last quarter.
“Ledgerwick needs $2.0M more new ARR this quarter and has $6.4M of pipeline, 3.2× coverage. The CRO calls it covered. What would you forecast, and what would you do in the six weeks left?”
Your turn
Say your answer out loud, or jot notes below. Both work. Or skip to the worked answer.
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A strong answer, step by step
Open each step in turn. This is one strong answer, not the only one.
Step 1: Weight the pipeline by how it has converted
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Take the 3.2× at face value: it clears the usual rule of three, so the quarter is covered.
Tempting, but it misses something. It counts $2.8M of discovery, where 8% closes in-quarter, the same as $600k of negotiation at 70%. A rule of thumb isn’t this team’s conversion history.
Weight each stage by its past close rate: the $6.4M is worth about $1.56M, about 78% of the $2.0M.
The strong move. Using the team’s own rates turns coverage into an expected number, and it falls about $440k short.
Ask the AI forecasting tool for a number and report that.
Tempting, but it misses something. A tool’s number is only as good as the stages and rates behind it. You can’t defend it to the CRO without the arithmetic: $224k + $418k + $495k + $420k.
See how a strong candidate says it
“Coverage counts every dollar the same. Weighted by past close rates, the $6.4M is worth about $1.56M: $224k from discovery, $418k from evaluation, $495k from proposal and $420k from negotiation. That’s about 78% of the $2.0M.”
Why it works: It replaces a rule of thumb with this team’s own conversion history.
Step 2: See where the coverage really sits
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Discovery is 44% of the pipeline but only $224k of the expected result; the quarter rests on $1.7M in proposal and negotiation.
The strong move. It names the deals the number depends on, and shows that new discovery can’t close the gap in six weeks.
Count on the AE’s AI-sourced discovery deals to move fast and close the gap.
Tempting, but it misses something. Discovery has closed 8% in-quarter over four quarters. Even doubling that on $2.8M adds about $224k, not enough for a gap of about $440k.
Push every stage evenly for more activity this week.
Tempting, but it misses something. Equal effort ignores where the expected $1.56M sits: proposal and negotiation carry about $915k of it.
See how a strong candidate says it
“Discovery is $2.8M, 44% of the pipeline, but only $224k of the expected result. The quarter rests on $1.7M in proposal and negotiation, worth about $915k.”
Why it works: It shows which deals the number depends on, and that fresh AI-sourced discovery can’t fill the gap in six weeks.
Step 3: Inspect the deals, not just the rates
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Trust the four-quarter averages; inspecting deals is just opinion.
Tempting, but it misses something. Averages hide this quarter’s facts. Two negotiation deals already slipped once, and 70% may be too generous for them.
Ask each AE for a gut-feel commit number and add them up.
Tempting, but it misses something. Unweighted rep calls tend to repeat the optimism behind 3.2× coverage. Evidence on each deal is what should move the 70% and 45% rates.
Check each late-stage deal for a met buyer, a close plan and an approved price, and discount deals that already slipped.
The strong move. Deal evidence can move the $1.56M either way; a coverage ratio can’t.
See how a strong candidate says it
“Past rates are a starting point. I’d check each late-stage deal for a met economic buyer, an agreed close plan and an approved price, and discount deals that have already slipped once.”
Why it works: Deal evidence can move the forecast either way; a coverage ratio can’t.
Step 4: Call the number and act on it
What would you do here? Open the move you’d make.
Forecast the full $2.0M to keep the team motivated, and revisit late in the quarter.
Tempting, but it misses something. The weighted number is about $1.56M. Hiding a gap of about $440k until the last week removes every option to fix it.
Forecast about $1.56M as a range, flag a gap of about $440k now, and focus on late-stage deals.
The strong move. It owns the shortfall while six weeks still leave time to act on proposals and negotiations.
Forecast $1.56M and ask the team to build $2.8M of new discovery.
Tempting, but it misses something. Discovery closes 8% in-quarter, so it can’t land in six weeks. It builds next quarter, not this one.
See how a strong candidate says it
“I’d forecast about $1.56M as a range, flag a gap of about $440k now rather than in the last week, and put the team’s time into late-stage deals that can still close this quarter.”
Why it works: It reaches a number, owns the shortfall early and turns it into a plan.
The answer, in short
- Decision
- Don’t call the quarter covered. Forecast about $1.56M, flag a gap of about $440k now, and focus the team on late-stage deals with a close plan.
- Because
- Weighted by this team’s own close rates, $6.4M of pipeline is worth about 78% of the target, and 44% of the coverage sits in discovery, where 8% closes in-quarter.
- What would change it
- Late-stage deals with met buyers and agreed close plans converting well above their past rates, or evidence that this quarter’s discovery deals close faster than the last four quarters’ did.
Common traps
- Treating 3× coverage as a guarantee.
- Counting every pipeline dollar the same.
- Trusting an average without inspecting the deals behind it.
- Hiding the gap until the last week of the quarter.
Check your answer
- Did I weight the pipeline by stage?
- Did I say which deals the number depends on?
- Did I name the deal evidence I’d check?
- Did I give a number, a gap and a plan?
Want feedback on how you’d answer? Practice “Forecast from evidence, not coverage” with an AI interviewer on Socratify.
Last reviewed Nov 9, 2026